Geoff Kendrick, the head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, recently discussed the potential increase in Bitcoin (BTC) prices after the halving in an interview with BNN Bloomberg.
Kendrick attributed the optimistic forecast to a decrease in leverage positions in the market, which could push BTC prices toward Standard Chartered’s year-end target of US$150,000.
Regarding Market Dynamics and Bitcoin Halving, Crypto Potato noted significant fluctuations in the BTC market, especially leading up to the Bitcoin halving. During this time, there was massive liquidation of short and long positions in the crypto market, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The reports of military actions between Iran and Israel led to a sharp decline in BTC prices, from a high of US$71,000 to a low of US$61,000 in just one day. The volatile weekend resulted in over 300,000 traders facing liquidation, with total losses reaching around US$1.8 billion.
Kendrick pointed out that the extensive liquidations have effectively cleansed the market of excessive leverage positions.
This cleansing is crucial as it eliminates a significant amount of financial risk from the market, laying a more stable foundation for future growth.
With reduced leverage, the market is less susceptible to extreme swings typically caused by high leverage trading, potentially leading to a more sustainable uptrend.
Looking at Recovery and Growth Potential, Kendrick believes the market is ready for a strong recovery post-halving. The reduction in leverage provides a fresh start for healthier market dynamics. As the market stabilizes, Kendrick anticipates a rebound and the possibility of reaching new highs.
This optimistic outlook is supported by inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) traded on Bitcoin spot exchanges and other positive market indicators.
Regarding the Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs, although new capital inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have temporarily stopped, Kendrick remains bullish about their future impact. He compares the potential market growth of Bitcoin ETFs to gold ETFs, which have seen substantial capital inflows over the years.
He projects that Bitcoin ETFs could attract US$50-US$100 billion in the next 18 to 24 months as the market continues to mature and gain broader acceptance among institutional investors.
Kendrick’s long-term forecast for BTC prices is very optimistic. He suggests that if inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reach the mid-range estimate of US$75 billion, BTC could surge to US$250,000 by 2025.
This projection is based on sustained investment growth and broader market adoption of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class, similar to gold. Let’s wait and see. (*)
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